Document Type
Article
Version Deposited
Published Version
Publication Date
10-23-2017
Publication Title
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI
10.1073/pnas.1703568114
Abstract
We combine downscaled tropical cyclones, storm-surge models, and probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess flood hazard associated with changing storm characteristics and sea-level rise in New York City from the preindustrial era to 2300. Compensation between increased storm intensity and offshore shifts in storm tracks causes minimal change in modeled storm-surge heights through 2300. However, projected sea-level rise leads to large increases in future overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City. Consequently, flood height return periods that were ∼500 y during the preindustrial era have fallen to ∼25 y at present and are projected to fall to ∼5 y within the next three decades.
Recommended Citation
Andra J. Garner, Michael E. Mann, Kerry A. Emanuel, Robert E. Kopp, Ning Lin, Richard B. Alley, Benjamin P. Horton, Robert M. DeConto, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, David Pollard. (2017). Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Nov 2017, 114 (45) 11861-11866; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1703568114
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Comments
Link to article on publisher site: https://www.pnas.org/content/114/45/11861.