Document Type

Article

Version Deposited

Published Version

Publication Date

4-4-2023

Publication Title

Scientific Reports

DOI

10.1038/s41598-023-31545-4

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most dangerous hazards that threaten U.S. coastlines. They can be particularly damaging when they occur in densely populated areas, such as the U.S. Northeast. Here, we investigate seasonal-scale variations in TC genesis and subsequent first landfall locations of > 37,000 synthetic TCs that impact the U.S. Northeast from the pre-industrial era (prior to 1800) through a very high emissions future (RCP8.5; 2080–2100). TC genesis in the Main Development Region decreases across all parts of the season from the pre-industrial to the future, with the greatest decreases in the proportion of genesis (up to 80.49%) occurring in the early and late seasons. Conversely, TC genesis in a region near the U.S. southeast coast increases across all parts of the season from the pre-industrial to the future, with the greatest increases in the proportion of genesis (up to 286.45%) also occurring in the early and late seasons. Impacts of changing TC genesis locations are highlighted by variations in where TCs make their first landfall over the same time periods, with an increase in landfalls along the mid-Atlantic seaboard from Delaware to North Carolina during all parts of the season from the pre-industrial to the future. © 2023, The Author(s).

Comments

Copyright 2023 The Authors. Published by SpringerNature. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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