Faculty mentor/PI email address
jim010@aol.cm
Is your research Teaching and Learning based?
1
Keywords
Wildfire smoke; PM2.5; Air Quality Index; Asthma; COPD; Emergency Department surge; Systems forecasting; Complex adaptive systems; Environmental health; Operational readiness; Learning systems
Date of Presentation
5-6-2026 12:00 AM
Poster Abstract
Background: Wildfire smoke produces abrupt increases in PM2.5 and Air Quality Index (AQI) levels. Event-based and multi-season studies demonstrate short-term increases in asthma-related Emergency Department (ED) visits, with additional evidence supporting increased utilization for broader respiratory disease and chronic lower respiratory disease (including COPD) (Reid et al., 2016; Liu et al., 2015; Stowell et al., 2025; CDC, 2023).
Objective: To synthesize current evidence linking wildfire smoke to ED respiratory surge and to propose a systems forecasting model that translates environmental signals into structured operational stabilization within a complex adaptive system (CAS).
Methods (Review & Model Development): Narrative synthesis of event-based surge analyses, time-series studies, and systematic reviews examining wildfire PM2.5 exposure and ED utilization, followed by development of an operational forecasting-to-prevention framework.
Results (Synthesis): Evidence consistently demonstrates reproducible increases in asthma ED visits during wildfire smoke exposure, with lag effects typically occurring same-day or within 24–48 hours. Nonlinear exposure-response relationships suggest threshold effects relevant to operational trigger development.
Conclusion: Wildfire smoke events reveal predictable environmental-to-clinical signal translation. Systems forecasting is the concept of reframing these large system data signals towards structured prevention and adaptive learning.
Disciplines
Disorders of Environmental Origin | Emergency Medicine | Medicine and Health Sciences | Respiratory Tract Diseases
Included in
Disorders of Environmental Origin Commons, Emergency Medicine Commons, Respiratory Tract Diseases Commons
Wildfires and Emergency Department Respiratory Surge: Brief Review, Systems Forecasting Implications and Recommendations for Research
Background: Wildfire smoke produces abrupt increases in PM2.5 and Air Quality Index (AQI) levels. Event-based and multi-season studies demonstrate short-term increases in asthma-related Emergency Department (ED) visits, with additional evidence supporting increased utilization for broader respiratory disease and chronic lower respiratory disease (including COPD) (Reid et al., 2016; Liu et al., 2015; Stowell et al., 2025; CDC, 2023).
Objective: To synthesize current evidence linking wildfire smoke to ED respiratory surge and to propose a systems forecasting model that translates environmental signals into structured operational stabilization within a complex adaptive system (CAS).
Methods (Review & Model Development): Narrative synthesis of event-based surge analyses, time-series studies, and systematic reviews examining wildfire PM2.5 exposure and ED utilization, followed by development of an operational forecasting-to-prevention framework.
Results (Synthesis): Evidence consistently demonstrates reproducible increases in asthma ED visits during wildfire smoke exposure, with lag effects typically occurring same-day or within 24–48 hours. Nonlinear exposure-response relationships suggest threshold effects relevant to operational trigger development.
Conclusion: Wildfire smoke events reveal predictable environmental-to-clinical signal translation. Systems forecasting is the concept of reframing these large system data signals towards structured prevention and adaptive learning.